Every Budget sends a signal through the public affairs market, and John Healey’s first as Chancellor is no exception. Income tax and VAT escaped any headline rises, and National Insurance was left untouched too. Even so, the measures that move money and power between sectors and regions will shape many of the roles we place over the next year.
Devolution Opens Up Regional Public Affairs
For our market, devolution is probably the biggest opportunity in this Budget. Regions will gain business rates and some income tax revenue to fund infrastructure. Mayors will also receive a growing share of business rates by the end of the decade.
That should bring new budgets and policy teams well outside Westminster, along with government affairs leads to run them. Candidates with experience in combined authorities or wider local government should therefore find the next 12 months unusually busy.
Financial Services Teams Stay Active but Cautious
The bank surcharge rises from 3% to 6% for 15 months. Banks are unlikely to cut policy teams over a temporary charge, although they’ll be lobbying hard on the end date. Discretionary hires may therefore wait until the picture is clearer.
That said, clients in this space tend to move quickly once they know what they need, which makes now a good time to open those conversations.
Trade Bodies Face a Changed Rates Debate
Small business rates relief now applies to firms with rateable values up to £18,000. According to the government, this takes around 70,000 more businesses out of business rates altogether. Retail, hospitality, leisure and small business associations will need to respond to their members and to a relief that has shifted the political conversation.
Gaming and vaping sit at the other end of the scale, with machine games duty rising to 25% and vape shops and adult gaming centres excluded from relief. Both sectors will need a stronger policy presence, which usually means new hires in government relations and communications.
Defence and AI Lead Demand for Policy Talent
New funding for defence and AI makes them the clearest growth areas for policy talent this year. Each sector needs people who understand Whitehall and can turn policy into commercial strategy. We expect demand for Heads of Government Affairs and Public Policy Directors here, particularly at companies that haven’t previously had a dedicated public affairs function.
Borrowing Costs Are the Main Caution
The one real note of caution is the cost of borrowing. The OBR expects debt interest to rise by £14 billion this year, and the Bank of England base rate is forecast to reach 4.25% within a year. Higher rates tend to push employers into reviewing headcount, which can lengthen approval processes for senior public affairs hires.
Whether you’re hiring top leadership talent or thinking about expanding your Public Affairs team, our team would be delighted to support you.
As a Managing Consultant in the Public Affairs Practice, Peter Ferguson advises and supports industry leaders across highly regulated sectors, including healthcare, financial services, energy, technology, FMCG, transport and logistics, looking to build or strengthen their government affairs and policy functions.
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